Stephen D. Goose
Abstract: US-Soviet global competition, primarily in the Third World, has been the dominant feature of the post-World War II period. Many Americans fear communist subversion and conquest are on the rise, and countering Soviet influence remains a primary rationale for key US foreign policy initiatives; however, the historical record does not uphold Soviet geopolitical momentum. Soviet influence peaked in the 1950s, and significantly affected a total of 35 countries. Yet, the aggregate of Soviet-influenced countries’ GNP and population both generally hovered between four and six percent, with brief exceptions. Soviet influence should not be measured by number of countries because not all countries are equally important. Furthermore, the Soviets have realized that influence over small states is disadvantageous, as they can not reciprocate any substantial benefits. Third World countries primarily turn to the USSR for economic assistance; moreover, both Soviet-influenced and Third World countries are seeking more independence from the superpowers. Both the US and the USSR have to recognize that neither can dictate the future of the developing world. Changes in the developing world are primarily domestically driven, and therefore the two superpowers should not presume that change is caused by the other. Additionally, activity by one strengthens influence for the other by creating bouts of alarmism, making measures such as the Reagan Doctrine unnecessary and dangerous. The US should instead work to improve relations with the USSR, while it focuses on domestic reform under Gorbachev, to produce a more stable, cooperative world order in the 21st century.
Key words: Cold War, Communism, Soviet Influence, Third World
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