Volume XXV – Number 1
Paul F. Herman, Jr.
Abstract: This article refines the Crisis Model, a framework for determining the key factors defining a crisis deterrence situation, to assist US policy makers in successful strategy formulation in the face of an impending use of force or intimidation by the USSR. The framework given to each crisis deterrence situation must take into account whether the Soviets are proactive or reactive and whether the specific location of the situation is important or unimportant. The context of the crisis must also be discussed in regards to any shifts in relative capabilities and the residual effect of the outcome of the preceding US-Soviet confrontation. Furthermore, the analysis of the situation’s historical context allows for the refinement of the Crisis Model and insights into the style and timing of deterrent policy acts. Until mankind is enlightened enough to embrace alternate approaches to war avoidance, the continued investment of analytical time into deterrent issues remains profitable.
